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 decision support tool


Closing the loop in medical decision support by understanding clinical decision-making: A case study on organ transplantation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Significant effort has been placed on developing decision support tools to improve patient care. However, drivers of real-world clinical decisions in complex medical scenarios are not yet well-understood, resulting in substantial gaps between these tools and practical applications. In light of this, we highlight that more attention on understanding clinical decision-making is required both to elucidate current clinical practices and to enable effective human-machine interactions. This is imperative in high-stakes scenarios with scarce available resources.


Deep Learning to Identify the Spatio-Temporal Cascading Effects of Train Delays in a High-Density Network

Nguyen, Vu Duc Anh, Li, Ziyue

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The operational efficiency of railway networks, a cornerstone of modern economies, is persistently undermined by the cascading effects of train delays. Accurately forecasting this delay propagation is a critical challenge for real-time traffic management. While recent research has leveraged Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to model the network structure of railways, a significant gap remains in developing frameworks that provide multi-step autoregressive forecasts at a network-wide scale, while simultaneously offering the live, interpretable explanations needed for decision support. This paper addresses this gap by developing and evaluating a novel XGeoAI framework for live, explainable, multi-step train delay forecasting. The core of this work is a two-stage, autoregressive Graph Attention Network (GAT) model, trained on a real-world dataset covering over 40% of the Dutch railway network. The model represents the system as a spatio-temporal graph of operational events (arrivals and departures) and is enriched with granular features, including platform and station congestion. To test its viability for live deployment, the model is rigorously evaluated using a sequential, k-step-ahead forecasting protocol that simulates real-world conditions where prediction errors can compound. The results demonstrate that while the proposed GATv2 model is challenged on pure error metrics (MAE) by a simpler Persistence baseline, it achieves consistently higher precision in classifying delay events -- a crucial advantage for a reliable decision support tool.


From Staff Messages to Actionable Insights: A Multi-Stage LLM Classification Framework for Healthcare Analytics

Sakai, Hajar, Tseng, Yi-En, Mikaeili, Mohammadsadegh, Bosire, Joshua, Jovin, Franziska

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Hospital call centers serve as the primary contact point for patients within a hospital system. They also generate substantial volumes of staff messages as navigators process patient requests and communicate with the hospital offices following the established protocol restrictions and guidelines. This continuously accumulated large amount of text data can be mined and processed to retrieve insights; however, traditional supervised learning approaches require annotated data, extensive training, and model tuning. Large Language Models (LLMs) offer a paradigm shift toward more computationally efficient methodologies for healthcare analytics. This paper presents a multi-stage LLM-based framework that identifies staff message topics and classifies messages by their reasons in a multi-class fashion. In the process, multiple LLM types, including reasoning, general-purpose, and lightweight models, were evaluated. The best-performing model was o3, achieving 78.4% weighted F1-score and 79.2% accuracy, followed closely by gpt-5 (75.3% Weighted F1-score and 76.2% accuracy). The proposed methodology incorporates data security measures and HIPAA compliance requirements essential for healthcare environments. The processed LLM outputs are integrated into a visualization decision support tool that transforms the staff messages into actionable insights accessible to healthcare professionals. This approach enables more efficient utilization of the collected staff messaging data, identifies navigator training opportunities, and supports improved patient experience and care quality.


Closing the loop in medical decision support by understanding clinical decision-making: A case study on organ transplantation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Significant effort has been placed on developing decision support tools to improve patient care. However, drivers of real-world clinical decisions in complex medical scenarios are not yet well-understood, resulting in substantial gaps between these tools and practical applications. In light of this, we highlight that more attention on understanding clinical decision-making is required both to elucidate current clinical practices and to enable effective human-machine interactions. This is imperative in high-stakes scenarios with scarce available resources. We show that most existing machine learning methods are insufficient to meet these requirements and propose iTransplant, a novel data-driven framework to learn the factors affecting decisions on organ offers in an instance-wise fashion directly from clinical data, as a possible solution.


Beyond Algorithmic Fairness: A Guide to Develop and Deploy Ethical AI-Enabled Decision-Support Tools

Gonzalez, Rosemarie Santa, Piansky, Ryan, Bae, Sue M, Biddle, Justin, Molzahn, Daniel

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and optimization is transforming the landscape of engineered systems, offering unprecedented opportunities to enhance efficiency, reliability, and resilience across domains (Palle, 2023) such as power systems (Thirunavukkarasu et al., 2023), supply chains, and logistics (Joel et al., 2024). As these networked systems become more dependent on AI-enabled decision support tools, the ethical challenges associated with their deployment grow more complex (Whittlestone and Clarke, 2022). Traditional ethical concerns in AI--such as fairness, accountability, and transparency--take on new dimensions when applied to systems characterized by complex networks and optimization processes, where decisions have far-reaching societal impacts (Jobin et al., 2019). Governments and organizations worldwide have responded to these ethical concerns by introducing frameworks and regulations aimed at ensuring trustworthy AI (Harrison and Luna-Reyes, 2022; Weaver, 2021; Aoki et al., 2024; Madhavan et al., 2020). Initiatives like the European Union's AI Act (Parliament and of the European Union, 2024) and the Biden-Harris administration's AI Bill of Rights (Biden, 2021) aim to safeguard fairness, transparency, and accountability in AI systems (White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, 2023; OECD, 2020; Radu, 2021).


Towards Personalised Patient Risk Prediction Using Temporal Hospital Data Trajectories

Barnes, Thea, Werner, Enrico, Clark, Jeffrey N., Santos-Rodriguez, Raul

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Quantifying a patient's health status provides clinicians with insight into patient risk, and the ability to better triage and manage resources. Early Warning Scores (EWS) are widely deployed to measure overall health status, and risk of adverse outcomes, in hospital patients. However, current EWS are limited both by their lack of personalisation and use of static observations. We propose a pipeline that groups intensive care unit patients by the trajectories of observations data throughout their stay as a basis for the development of personalised risk predictions. Feature importance is considered to provide model explainability. Using the MIMIC-IV dataset, six clusters were identified, capturing differences in disease codes, observations, lengths of admissions and outcomes. Applying the pipeline to data from just the first four hours of each ICU stay assigns the majority of patients to the same cluster as when the entire stay duration is considered. In-hospital mortality prediction models trained on individual clusters had higher F1 score performance in five of the six clusters when compared against the unclustered patient cohort. The pipeline could form the basis of a clinical decision support tool, working to improve the clinical characterisation of risk groups and the early detection of patient deterioration.


Target specification bias, counterfactual prediction, and algorithmic fairness in healthcare

Tal, Eran

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Bias in applications of machine learning (ML) to healthcare is usually attributed to unrepresentative or incomplete data, or to underlying health disparities. This article identifies a more pervasive source of bias that affects the clinical utility of ML-enabled prediction tools: target specification bias. Target specification bias arises when the operationalization of the target variable does not match its definition by decision makers. The mismatch is often subtle, and stems from the fact that decision makers are typically interested in predicting the outcomes of counterfactual, rather than actual, healthcare scenarios. Target specification bias persists independently of data limitations and health disparities. When left uncorrected, it gives rise to an overestimation of predictive accuracy, to inefficient utilization of medical resources, and to suboptimal decisions that can harm patients. Recent work in metrology - the science of measurement - suggests ways of counteracting target specification bias and avoiding its harmful consequences.


Analytical Techniques to Support Hospital Case Mix Planning

Burdett, Robert L, corry, Paul, Cook, David, Yarlagadda, Prasad

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This article introduces analytical techniques and a decision support tool to support capacity assessment and case mix planning (CMP) approaches previously created for hospitals. First, an optimization model is proposed to analyse the impact of making a change to an existing case mix. This model identifies how other patient types should be altered proportionately to the changing levels of hospital resource availability. Then we propose multi-objective decision-making techniques to compare and critique competing case mix solutions obtained. The proposed techniques are embedded seamlessly within an Excel Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) personal decision support tool (PDST), for performing informative quantitative assessments of hospital capacity. The PDST reports informative metrics of difference and reports the impact of case mix modifications on the other types of patient present. The techniques developed in this article provide a bridge between theory and practice that is currently missing and provides further situational awareness around hospital capacity.


AI tool gains doctors' trust by giving advice like a colleague

#artificialintelligence

Hospitals have begun using "decision support tools" powered by artificial intelligence that can diagnose disease, suggest treatment or predict a surgery's outcome. But no algorithm is correct all the time, so how do doctors know when to trust the AI's recommendation? A new study led by Qian Yang, assistant professor of information science in the Cornell Ann S. Bowers College of Computing and Information Science, suggests that if AI tools can counsel the doctor like a colleague--pointing out relevant biomedical research that supports the decision--then doctors can better weigh the merits of the recommendation. The researchers will present the new study, "Harnessing Biomedical Literature to Calibrate Clinicians' Trust in AI Decision Support Systems," in April at the Association for Computing Machinery CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems. Previously, most AI researchers have tried to help doctors evaluate suggestions from decision support tools by explaining how the underlying algorithm works, or what data was used to train the AI.


Understanding how the use of AI decision support tools affect critical thinking and over-reliance on technology by drug dispensers in Tanzania

Salim, Ally Jr, Allen, Megan, Mariki, Kelvin, Masoy, Kevin James, Liana, Jafary

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The use of AI in healthcare is designed to improve care delivery and augment the decisions of providers to enhance patient outcomes. When deployed in clinical settings, the interaction between providers and AI is a critical component for measuring and understanding the effectiveness of these digital tools on broader health outcomes. Even in cases where AI algorithms have high diagnostic accuracy, healthcare providers often still rely on their experience and sometimes gut feeling to make a final decision. Other times, providers rely unquestioningly on the outputs of the AI models, which leads to a concern about over-reliance on the technology. The purpose of this research was to understand how reliant drug shop dispensers were on AI-powered technologies when determining a differential diagnosis for a presented clinical case vignette. We explored how the drug dispensers responded to technology that is framed as always correct in an attempt to measure whether they begin to rely on it without any critical thought of their own. We found that dispensers relied on the decision made by the AI 25 percent of the time, even when the AI provided no explanation for its decision.